EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CASSAVA OUTPUT IN NIGERIA
Keywords:
Climate, Change, Cassava, ARDL, Bound, Approach, NigeriaAbstract
The study examined the effects of climate change on cassava output in Nigeria. The study specifically described crop output trend in Nigeria, determine the relationship between the climatic variables and the selected crop output, analyzed the effect of the climatic variables on the selected crops output and determine the time span for possible disequilibrium adjustment for the changes in the climatic variables. Data were secured from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) from 1981-2018. The effect of climate change was analyzed using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound approach, Error Correction Model and Augmented Dickey– Fuller tests for stationarity test. On the effects of climatic variables on cassava output, the coefficient of multiple determination (R2) 0.6589, shows that about 65.89%, of the variations in maize output was explained by the climatic variables. F-statistics of 4.41 is significantly higher than the lower bound of 2.9 and the upper bound of 3.8 at 5% level. This indicates that there is a long run relationship between maize output and the climatic variables in the model. The ECM value of maize output is -0.213. The magnitude of the coefficient estimate of ECM suggests that 21.3% of the disequilibrium caused by previous years’ shocks converges back to the long-run equilibrium in the current year. This reveals that the speed of adjustment will adjust to the long-term equilibrium. The model used in the study was subjected to diagnostic tests such as CUSUM and Ramsey stability test, normality tests, serial correlation tests and heteroscedasticity test. This paper recommends the need for programmes to intimate farmers with modern adaptation strategies especially the use of irrigation facilities to supplement rainfall in the study area. Sensitization of farmers on the importance of weather forecast.
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